Two Covid19 vaccines are currently made in India: Covishield by Serum Institute of India (SII), which is made based on a technology/patent, and under licence from UK-based AstraZeneca; and the home-developed and produced Covaxin by Bharat Biotech.

With the Central Government’s push to increase the production of vaccines in India, between June and October, Covaxin will start getting made by three public sector units (Haffkine based in Mumbai, Indian Immunologicals based in Hyderabad and BIBCOL based in Bulandshahr, UP), and the manufacturing capacity will go up more than 7.8 times from just 10 million doses per month in Feb 2021 to ~78.2 million doses by August.

Soon, two more vaccines will be made in India. The first is the Sputnik-V developed by Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology of Russia, and is licensed by the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) to seven companies for manufacturing in India, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Hetero Biopharma, Gland Pharma, Stelis Biopharma, Panacea Biotec, Virchow Biotech and Shilpa Medicare. The fourth India-made vaccine will be made by Biological E, based on technology from two American hospitals, Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development and Baylor College of Medicine, along with California–based company Dynavax Technologies Corporation.

The overall capacity of made–in–India Covid19 vaccines will go up 4.55 times from 60 million doses per month in Feb 2021 to ~273.2 million doses by September.

The AMB has levelled allegations on Modi that he exported (or allowed the exports of) vaccines instead of using them to vaccinate Indians at home.

Yes, it is correct that India exported 66.37 million (6.637 crore) doses of Covid vaccines to 93 countries between 20 Jan and 16 April 2021. Out of these, ~35.467 million doses of Covishield and 325,000 doses of Covaxin were sold commercially, while 10.72 million doses of Covishield and 19.86 million doses of Covaxin were given free of cost as grants.

India’s neighbours got 31.9% of the doses. The UK and Canada got 8.3%, as per the commitment SII had with AstraZeneca. Poor African nations and UN health workers/peacekeepers got 29.108 44.3%. Middle-eastern countries which supply us oil or have a huge Indian diaspora, or both, got 8%. Brazil bought 6%. That accounts for 98.1% of the vaccines exported by India. If you were India’s PM, to which of these groups of nations would you have not exported the vaccines?

The All India Peoples Science Network, a national federation of science networks, issued a statement, urging the Central Government to continue exporting Covid19 vaccines. Like I keep saying, no PM or government can satisfy everyone. 

Compared to the 66.37 million doses exported, India has administered 175.24 million (~17.5 crore) doses to residents in 115 days. Out of this, 110.12 million doses were administered in the last 41 days as on 11 May @ 2.686 million (26.86 lakh) doses per day.

See this graph of the number of people who have received at least one dose in 11 countries with >60 million population. Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Japan, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Egypt, Vietnam, the DRC, Iran, Thailand, and Tanzania do not even figure in the graph, as their numbers are too low. See India’s numbers compared with much richer nations.

Yes, Israel has vaccinated 62.64% of its population as of 9th May and this fact has been much talked about in the media and on WhatsApp chats, saying India should follow Israel’s example. In the same way, comparisons with Chile, Bahrain, Serbia, Aruba, Hungary, Qatar, and Uruguay—which the Times of India made on 5th May—do not make sense.

When comparing what percentage of the Indian population has been vaccinated, we should compare ourselves only to large countries (population of over 100 million or 10 crore), which is what the next graph does. Again, countries with very low numbers have been left out. The USA has been left out because its high number makes the lines of countries below India almost disappear.

It is clear that India has not done badly at all, considering that Brazil’s Per Capita GDP (PCGDP) is 5.75x of India, Mexico’s is ~4.2x, and Russia’s is 5.3x. In fact, we have done better than Indonesia (~1.94x), the Philippines (~1.66x), and even Japan, which has ~19.6x of India’s PCGDP.

On 10th May, 27 European Union (EU) nations with 5.62 times India’s total GDP and average 17.9 times India’s PCGDP were able to manage only 93.49% of the vaccination numbers India had achieved.

My German friend told me she has not even got a single dose, as only those aged 60+ and special categories such as healthcare workers were eligible. A friend in Canada said is wife and he were waiting for their first shot for over three months, and were told it would be delayed indefinitely as India stopped vaccine exports to Canada.

Did you know that, out of 837 million doses of vaccines which were projected to be manufactured worldwide in 2020, only 3.7% were actually produced? (Source: Airfinity). Therefore, India is not the only country that has had to delay vaccination.

Look at this chart of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturers and the number of doses they are expected to produce in one year from May 2021 to April 2022.

This chart shows the vaccines manufactured by country as on 3 March 2021. Data after this date was not available when I was writing this. Contrary to popular belief, India is NOT the world’s largest Covid vaccine manufacturer. India is the world’s largest producer of all types of vaccines, not specifically for Covid vaccines, in which category it is the fourth largest.

Top American scientist Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in said that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may not impact the world’s low and middle income countries, but India’s vaccines have “rescued the world” and India’s contributions must not be underestimated. It is “India’s gift” to the world, Dr. Hotez said.

There were controversies raised by the Congress, AAP, TMC, and other members of the AMB, about prices of Covishield and Covaxin being higher for states than for the Centre. SII is selling Covishield to the Centre at ₹150, states at ₹300, and to private hospitals at ₹600. The price for the Centre had been decided back in Oct 2020, and SII makes a loss on each dose at that price.

Here are my assumptions of the financials for the first 184.6 crore doses of Covishield. The profit before tax comes to average ₹18.55 per dose after all 184.6 crore doses are manufactured.

I have done more than enough financial studies in my 20 years as a consultant to say that I cannot be far from the actual numbers.

But some genius in the Congress party has calculated SII’s profit at ₹35,350 crores (10.3 times higher than my calculations), by assuming that private hospitals will buy 50% of the doses. I think my assumption of 20% is far more accurate. As per the Congress, SII’s profits from Covishield will be ₹350 per dose. To achieve this, SII will have to sell Covishield at an average price of ₹900 per dose (₹450 pay-out to AZ; ₹100 manufacturing cost) and not recover any investments or costs. As the highest price slab is ₹600 for private hospitals, how will they get average ₹900? Can the genius in Congress explain? If Rahul did the calculations himself, then we understand, don’t we?

Here are the calculations for Bharat Biotech. Yes, Bharat Biotech will make far greater profits than SII as they don’t have to pay royalties to a foreign licensor, unlike SII.

But the Congress genius has assumed their profits at ₹75,750 crores, with a whole lot of wrong assumptions, especially that private hospitals will buy 50.5 crore doses at ₹1200.

All their calculations are only based on <45 population, as the Central Govt. is taking care of the >45 population. They have assumed India’s total <45 population is 101 crores, whereas it is actually 97.55 crores. Anyways, that is not the big issue. The big issue is that, as per Congress, 25.25 crore Indians below the age of 45 will pay ₹1600–2500 for two doses for Covishield and another 25.25 crore people will pay ₹2900–3400 for two doses of Covaxin. Really, Mr. Congress? Besides, though the Centre is paying ₹150 per dose, it is giving it 100% FREE to the states—after all, it is the states which carry out the vaccinations, not the Centre.

As far as the price for private hospitals is concerned, those who are getting vaccinated at private hospitals were surely watching movies at multiplexes before the onset of the pandemic. Consider that the price of Russian and Chinese vaccines is more than ₹750, and that of American vaccines is more than ₹1100–1480, SII’s price of ₹300 and ₹600 is not bad at all, and Bharat Biotech’s price of ₹400 is also fine. But Bharat definitely needs to reduce the ₹1200 price being charged to private hospitals. Does Dr. Ella want to become Mukesh Ambani overnight?

The Congress and other opposition parties also raised hue and cry to allow import of Pfizer vaccines. All the noise was only for Pfizer, there were no asks for Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), Novavax, or Moderna. Why? Is there any financial interest involved? I wouldn’t be surprised if there is, after all the Congress has been known for dozens and dozens of kickbacks and scams.

In early Dec 2020, Pfizer was the first foreign company to seek emergency–use approval in India but it did not attend subsequent meetings called by our Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation. Pfizer sought to import and distribute its vaccine in India without doing local trials. “Based on … our understanding of additional information that the regulator may need, the company has decided to withdraw its application at this time,” Pfizer said in a statement to Reuters on 5 Feb 2021, adding that it will in the future look to resubmit its application with the additional information that the Indian regulator requires. There are unconfirmed reports that the GOI wanted the vaccines for ₹600 per dose, but Pfizer wanted more than three times that price.

There are many other important things to understand about Pfizer’s vaccine. Federal (Central) government officials in the USA had to return several thousand doses after they became ‘too cold’ during the transportation process. As dry ice transport by air poses a cabin pressure risk, it is restricted by the US Federal Aviation Administration to 15,000 lbs (~6,804 kgs), or maximum 10 lakh doses per flight. This was increased from a pre–Covid19 limit of 3,000 lbs. Not all states or cities follow the federal guidelines, and most air transport within the USA is still only 3–4 lakh doses per flight. This is also the quantity Japan and Israel get per flight.

Considering that India needs about 176 crore doses (the calculations are given later), even if the Pfizer vaccine met only 40% of our needs (70.4 crore doses), it would mean 2,011 flights @ 3–4 lakh doses per flight. This would cost ₹8486 crores @ ₹4.22 crores for a chartered 38–hour return flight (as the aircrafts would have to return empty) from the USA to India including loading and unloading time. Add another ₹241 crores @ ₹12 lakhs for a one–hour chartered domestic flight (average to cover all airports across India from Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Kolkata). Is Mr. Rahul Gandhi planning to donate ₹8727 crores for this noble cause from the very rich Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, which has received donations/grants from the inventors of the Wuhan virus (coronavirus)?

Next, consider the fact that Pfizer vaccines need ultra–low temperature (ULT) of -60ºC to -80ºC, much colder than a normal freezer (-20ºC) or fridge. Covishield and Covaxin need 2º to 8ºC, and an ordinary fridge is sufficient. Pfizer requires specialised ULT containers (₹14–18 lakhs each) and trucks for transport from the airports to hospitals in 8,000+ Indian towns. Each hospital will need ULT freezers (₹3–20 lakhs each), depending on the number of vaccines they need to store. Add everything, and the cost of vaccinating 40% of India with the Pfizer vaccine is staggering.

Most importantly, given its production volumes and existing supply commitments, Pfizer can supply maximum six lakh doses per week to India. Let’s assume this doubles to 12 lakh doses per week in 12 weeks and then to 24 lakh doses per week in 24 weeks.

All these hurdles make it very difficult and costly to scale up distribution of the Pfizer vaccine. That’s why Pfizer has been focused on North America. More than ₹175 per dose is just the cost of storage and transport for the Pfizer vaccine. Even if Pfizer gave it to India at a generous price of $25 (₹1850) per dose, we are talking about a cost of ₹2025 per dose for the hospital.

Pfizer vaccines cost ₹3480 per dose in Israel. The price of $19.50 (₹1443) per dose in the USA was only for the first 100 million doses. The company renegotiates prices for every order and has stalled deliveries until new orders are paid. A crorepati said on WhatsApp that India should have approved Pfizer and let business houses set up the ULT infrastructure, as “India had five crore people ready to pay ₹10,000 for two doses.” As per Credit Suisse, India only has ~7.6 lakh dollar millionaires (net worth of $1 million or ₹7.5 crores). India’s most authoritative rich list provider Hurun India says that there are 4.12 lakh dollar-millionaire households. Even if we assume that people with a net worth of ₹1 crore can afford ₹30,000 for a family of three, the population won’t cross one crore.

Arvind Kejriwal wrote to Modi that the vaccine formulae of Covaxin and Covishield should be shared with other capable pharma companies to scale up production in the country. So that the Chinese also get a hold of it? I am surprised the IIT–graduate Mr. Kejriwal does not understand that the formula of Covishield is owned by AstraZeneca, and not SII or Modi. Besides, the only formula developed locally in India—that of Covaxin—is already being shared with the three PSUs that I named in the second paragraph.

Anyways, the most important thing is to understand by when the entire 18+ population in India will get fully vaccinated with two doses, and this Table explains the requirements

Accounting for 6% wastage, India will need ~1439.86 million doses for the 18+ population and ~432.82 million for the population aged 6–17. The current wastage is 6.5% nationally. Tamil Nadu had the highest wastage of 12%, followed by Haryana at 9.74%, Punjab at 8.12%, Manipur at 8%, and Telangana at 7.55%. The PM has spoken to most state chief ministers asking them to take measures to reduce or completely do away with this wastage.

About 175.24 million doses have already been administered and ~9.5 million are available with states as on 11th May. This brings down the requirement for 18+ to 1255.12 million doses. So when will everyone who wants to be vaccinated and to whom vaccines can reach, get vaccinated?

Yes, all adults (18+) in India may have to wait until 17 Oct 2021 (~5 months) to get fully vaccinated as per these simple calculations. This data disproves the claim of many people in opposition parties, and other members of the AMB, that it will take 44 or 63 months for all 18+ Indians to get two shots. One lady (I think she was a Trinamool or Left supporter) said on TV that it will take 11 years. Maybe she gets her data from the ISI or the Pakistan Army!

Even if the domestic production and imports don’t increase further, all children and adolescents aged 6–17 can also be vaccinated by 20th November this year. In fact, we can also vaccinate 59.57 million children aged 2–5 (assuming the refusal percentage will be the same as the 6–17 year olds) by 29th November if their first dose starts 8 – 10 weeks earlier; but then the date for 6–17 year olds will move by a few days. We can thus hope that there will be lesser critical cases and lesser deaths due to Covid19 in India in the year 2022 and beyond, till the pandemic lasts, if its lasts beyond Mar–Apr 2022 at all.

The USA, under its “Operation Warp Speed” (for Trump-haters and Joe Biden–Kamala Harris fans, fact is that this operation was started by President Donald Trump in May 2020), invested $12.4 billion (₹91,740 crores) in ‘potential’ Covid vaccines to be made by six companies, as per a 14 December 2020 article in Time magazine. The operation aimed to provide at least 300 million doses of vaccines by Jan 2021, and 900 million in total.

Considering that India needed ~1.9994 billion (199.94 crore) vaccines for the entire 2+ population which wants to get vaccinated, including wastage and the vaccines already administered, and assuming an average price of ₹1500 as a major proportion would need to be imported if all the vaccination needed to be over by 15th May, could the GOI have invested ~₹3 lakh crores for a similar operation, and that too within 4–5 months?

The amount that the USA invested was only 0.055% of their GDP and the amount that India would need to invest would be ~2.24% of our GDP, or about 40.7 times that of the USA.

Maybe we should have, but a wiser decision was perhaps taken to be aatmanirbhar. After all, no one was expecting such a severe second wave and the numbers to rise so soon once it started. And what good would 15th May have done?

The USA initially refused to send its unused AstraZeneca vaccines (same as Covishield made in India), or raw materials required for Indian companies to make vaccines. “United States first and foremost is engaged in an ambitious and effective and, so far, successful effort to vaccinate the American people. It is not only in our interest to see Americans get vaccinated, but it is in the interest of the rest of the world to see Americans vaccinated,” said a spokesman of the U.S. State Department (their foreign ministry), when asked about raw materials exports to India. Americans think they still own the world, even after China has surpassed them in almost every sphere.

After Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar failed to convince his counterpart Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval (widely considered the third most powerful man in Modi’s government) spoke to his American counterpart Jake Sullivan, and the USA cowed down.

What was discussed will remain an ‘official secret’, but I would not be surprised if it did not have to do with India threatening to blacklist US defence manufacturers from the Modi government’s over $210 billion (₹15.75 lakh crore) weapons procurement program, which includes the immediate (after the economy revives) order of 150 multirole combat jets (114 for the IAF and 36 for the Indian Navy) for an estimated price of $22.5 billion (₹1.69 lakh crore), for which two American companies—Boeing and Lockheed Martin—are trying very hard, especially after losing the earlier 36 aircraft deal to the French-made Rafale. The American ‘Military Industrial Complex’ (MIC) is the most powerful body in that country, as I have elaborated in my book “USAma”. No politician in the USA dare goes against the wishes of the MIC. If it was not this reason, why would our NSA have to speak to their NSA? In ideal circumstances, our defence minister should have spoken to his counterpart, but using a translator could have been catastrophic, and I doubt that General Lloyd Austin could have understood the accent of Rajnath Singh, or vice-versa.

Once they had cowed down, not only did the USA agree to send us 20 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, but also agreed to send raw materials for our vaccine manufacturers, and a host of other drugs and medical supplies. Last, let’s look at which states have vaccinated well, and which haven’t (as on 11 May).

DISCLAIMER : The views expressed are personal